Political dynasties don't usually collapse in a clean break. They implode slowly, and then all at once. When Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte formed their high-profile alliance in 2022, everyone knew it was a marriage of convenience. It was designed to sweep the elections, not to govern with a shared ideology.
Now, watching the bitter fallout play out across Manila, people keep asking a straightforward question: Did Marcos wait too long to neutralize the Duterte family machine?
The short answer is yes. By choosing accommodation over immediate confrontation during the early phase of his presidency, Marcos gave his rivals the exact runway they needed to regroup.
The Cost of Early Accommodation
When you take power with a massive mandate, the temptation is to keep the peace. Marcos inherited a deeply polarized country and opted for a cabinet-sharing approach. He handed Sara Duterte the Department of Education and tried to maintain the illusion of the UniTeam.
That strategy bought short-term quiet, but it was a tactical error.
- The Duterte camp used those initial months to solidify institutional loyalty.
- Budget allocations and agency networks remained heavily influenced by Duterte appointees.
- Public perception lingered that the administration was too weak to challenge the populist stronghold in Mindanao.
By the time the velvet gloves came off—marked by Sara Duterte resigning from the cabinet, explosive public threats, and subsequent congressional investigations—the Dutertes had already built a heavily fortified political trench.
Why the Duterte Base Refuses to Crack
Critics often wonder why corruption scandals, budget misuse hearings, and impeachment trials haven't completely erased Sara Duterte's political viability. The reality of Philippine politics is intensely personal.
For millions of voters, the Duterte brand represents a direct, unfiltered brand of governance that stands in stark contrast to the traditional Manila elite—a category the Marcos family historically belongs to, despite their rehabilitation. When state investigators scrutinize confidential funds or past drug war policies, the Duterte loyalists don't see accountability. They see a targeted political persecution.
Marcos and his allies, including House Speaker Martin Romualdez, have tried to counter this by leaning into institutional checks. They've allowed inquiries into extrajudicial killings and backed legal challenges, including grave threat charges and an ongoing Senate impeachment trial. Yet, judicial and legislative battles move slowly. In politics, momentum is everything, and every month the legal process drags on gives the Dutertes a platform to play the victim.
The 2028 Shadow Over Manila
Everything happening right now is a brutal rehearsal for the 2028 presidential race. Marcos cannot run for reelection due to single-term limits, meaning his administration has a strict expiration date. If the Duterte camp survives these legislative trials and keeps its regional machinery intact, a return to power in Malacanang is entirely possible.
Marcos hasn't completely missed his chance to sideline his rivals, but his window is shrinking fast. Relying solely on legal offensives and legislative maneuverings won't kill a populist movement unless it is matched by tangible economic delivery for ordinary Filipinos—something current governance struggles with amid persistent inflation and recurring infrastructure scandals.
The feud is past the point of reconciliation. Half-measures will only guarantee a fierce retaliation if the political pendulum swings back.
Philippine president asserts country's sovereignty over disputed South China Sea
This video provides additional context on President Marcos's current policy priorities and his administration's public positioning amid ongoing political pressures.
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