The final American soldier has packed up and left Iraqi soil. Operation Inherent Resolve is officially over. After more than two decades of an on-and-off military footprint that began with the 2003 invasion and evolved into a mission against the Islamic State, the U.S. military announced on September 30, 2026, that its withdrawal is complete.
Streets in Baghdad erupted in celebratory vehicle convoys, with security officers flashing victory signs. But behind the flag-waving and the rhetoric of full sovereignty, a tense reality sets in. The departure of the last troops from the Erbil air base in the semiautonomous Kurdish region closes a massive chapter of Middle Eastern history. It also opens a volatile door. For a different perspective, consider: this related article.
Washington and Baghdad agreed on this timeline years ago, but executing it while a regional war between the U.S. and Iran simbers changes the stakes entirely. Iran-backed militias are claiming total victory, while regional minorities and security analysts are bracing for chaos.
Who Actually Won the Exit Strategy
If you listen to hardline factions like Kataib Hezbollah, the U.S. was chased out in defeat. Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official with the militia, called the exit the beginning of full sovereignty. Further coverage on the subject has been published by TIME.
Reality is more complicated. The U.S. military pulled out because the territorial caliphate of ISIS was dismantled years ago, turning the militant group into fragmented, hidden sleeper cells. Washington didn't leave because it was forced out overnight; it left because the original counter-ISIS mission had run its course, even if the timeline got accelerated and complicated by ongoing friction with Iran.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's government tried to leverage the September 30 deadline to force non-state armed groups to disarm and surrender their weapons to state control. That grand bargain failed. Powerful pro-Iran militias refused to lay down their arms, calling the bluff of the Iraqi state. Now that the foreign troops are gone, those militias still hold the heavy weaponry, leaving Baghdad in a precarious position of domestic weakness.
The Rising Anxiety in the Kurdish Region
While Baghdad celebrates, the mood in northern Iraq is tense. The Kurdish Peshmerga Ministry issued sharp warnings leading up to the final departure.
During the recent conflict between the U.S. and Iran, bases in the Kurdish region absorbed over a thousand drone and ballistic missile strikes. The removal of American air defense systems leaves local authorities feeling profoundly exposed. Without U.S. shields overhead, Kurdish leadership worries they are sitting ducks for regional proxies and residual sleeper cells looking to exploit the security vacuum.
Iraqi security officials in both the north and center share these private concerns. The Islamic State might be down, but they aren't completely gone. Conspiratorial networks still operate in the disputed territories between federal forces and Kurdish lines. Taking away the coalition's intelligence, surveillance, and air support creates an inviting window for extremists to regroup.
What Replaces Military Leverage
For twenty years, American influence in Iraq flowed through a heavy military pipe—joint operations, training, intelligence sharing, and air cover. That channel is permanently shut.
Starting now, the relationship shifts to standard diplomacy, energy investments, and financial pressure. Iraq relies heavily on the U.S. Federal Reserve for access to global dollars. Washington's primary leverage is no longer a rifle or a jet; it's the financial ledger.
This transactional shift cuts both ways. U.S. companies may stick around, giving Washington a vested economic interest in keeping Iraq stable. However, leaving the country entirely vulnerable to external pressure from Tehran means Baghdad's leaders must walk a razor-thin tightrope. They have to manage heavily armed domestic factions that openly threaten the government if it bows to foreign economic interests.
The Road Ahead for Regional Stability
The U.S. exit was designed to pivot American strategic focus away from endless Middle Eastern entanglements and toward other global theaters. Instead, the final pullout feels less like a clean break and more like a tactical retreat from a burning house.
The core question isn't whether Iraq is sovereign on paper. It's whether the Iraqi state can survive the internal power struggle now that the external stabilizer is gone. Iran-backed groups want total dominance, ISIS wants an opening, and the civilian leadership is caught in the middle with diminishing tools to enforce order.
Keep an eye on whether Prime Minister al-Zaidi can actually enforce domestic disarmament in the coming months, or if the militias filling the American void write the next chapter by force.
